اقتصاد فضا و توسعه روستایی

اقتصاد فضا و توسعه روستایی

تحلیلی بر تجزیه مولفه‌های موثر بر شاخص قیمت مواد غذایی خانوار روستای و شهری در اقتصاد ایران: با تفکیک شاخص‌های داخلی و جهانی

نویسندگان
دانشیار گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه ولی‌عصر(عج) رفسنجان، رفسنجان، ایران.
چکیده
از آنجایی که شاخص قیمت مواد غذایی سهم مهمی در سبد خانوار ایرانی و امنیت غذایی دارد از این رو این مطالعه با پر کردن شکاف سایر مطالعات در این زمینه، به تحلیل عوامل موثر داخلی و خارجی بر شاخص قیمت مواد غذایی چه در بعد خانوار روستایی و چه بعد خانوار شهری و سیاست‌های حمایتی ناشی از آن خواهد پرداخت. برای این منظور ما از روش‌های متنوعی از جمله الگوی خود رگرسیون برداری بیزین (BVAR) و رگرسیون چندکی (QR) برای تجزیه این اثرات به صورت ماهانه و طی دوره 1383 الی 1403 استفاده کرده‌ایم. آمارها گویای آن است که در سال 1404 بخش خوراکی و موادغذایی دومین وزن را در سبد کالاهای مصرفی خانوارها به خود اختصاص داده است. نتایج تابع عکس العمل آنی گویای آن است که در یک دوره بلند مدت کانال شوک ناشی از نقدینگی، شاخص قیمت حمل و نقل و نرخ ارز اثرات مثبت بر شاخص تورم مواد غذایی در مناطق شهری و روستایی دارند و این اثرات در بخش شهری بیشتر از بخش روستایی است. در یک دوره میان مدت، به ترتیب 3/46 و 08/3 درصد از نوسانات متغیر موادغذایی شهری توسط نرخ ارز و شاخص قیمت حمل و نقل توضیح داده می‌شود در حالی که این آمار برای بخش روستایی به ترتیب 32/3 و 2/42 است. در بعد فاکتورهای خارجی، نتایج نشان می‌دهد که کانال اثرگذاری شوک‌های نفتی بر روی شاخص قیمت مواد غذایی بخش شهری بیشتر از بخش روستایی است و تاثیرپذیری قیمت موادغذایی بخش روستایی نسبت به شوک قیمت جهانی مواد غذایی بیشتر از بخش شهری است. همچنین اثرات نامتقارن این روابط در رگرسیون چندکی نیز تایید گردید.
کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله English

An analysis of the factors influencing the food price index for rural-urban households in the Iranian economy: differentiating between domestic and global indices

نویسندگان English

Davoud Mahmoudinia
Mohaddeseh Khodadadi
Economic Department, Vali-e-Asr University of Rafsanjan, Rafsanjan Iran
چکیده English

The food price index plays a significant role in the Iranian household budget and food security. In this study, we analyze the internal and external factors affecting the food price index in both rural and urban households. To achieve this, we employed various methods, including the Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model and Quantile Regression (QR), to examine these effects on a monthly basis from 2004 to 2024. Statistics indicate that by 2025, the food and food products sector will account for the second-largest share of the household consumer goods basket. After conducting unit root tests, cointegration analysis, optimal lag determination, and stability tests for the model, we found that the impulse response function revealed certain dynamics. Specifically, shocks from liquidity and the transportation price index positively impact both food inflation indicators, with a more pronounced effect on the food price index of rural households. Conversely, in the short term, the agricultural product price index has a stronger and more positive effect on the urban household index. Regarding external factors, our results indicate that the impact of oil shocks on the food price index is greater in urban areas than in rural areas, while the influence of food prices in the rural sector due to global food price shocks is more significant than in the urban sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Urban food prices
Rural food prices
BVAR regression
Quantile regression
Iranian Economy
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تابستان 1405

  • تاریخ دریافت 04 مرداد 1405
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 04 مرداد 1405