اقتصاد فضا و توسعه روستایی

اقتصاد فضا و توسعه روستایی

شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی محلی مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری با رویکرد آینده ‌پژوهی (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان فردوس)

نوع مقاله : پایان‌نامه/رساله

نویسندگان
مسلم قاسمی
سعیده فخاری
احسان جعفری
گروه گردشگری، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
هدف: این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی محلی موثر بر توسعه گردشگری در شهرستان فردوس در افق آینده 1414 با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی انجام شده است.
روش پژوهش: نوع پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش شناخت، ترکیبی (کیفی-کمّی) است. جامعه آماری شامل کارشناسان و مدیران حوزه گردشگری شهرستان فردوس بود که در مرحله کیفی با استفاده از روش نمونه‌گیری گلوله‌ای و رسیدن به اشباع نظری، 30 نفر از آنان به‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. گردآوری داده‌ها با استفاده از پرسشنامه تأثیرات متقابل آینده‌پژوهی و مصاحبه‌های ساختاریافته انجام شد. داده‌ها با استفاده از مدل ساختاری MICMAC تجزیه و تحلیل شد.
یافته‌ها: یافته‌های پژوهش نشان داد که از میان 15 پیشران شناسایی‌شده، مهم‌ترین پیشران‌های کلیدی داخلی (محلی) مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری در شهرستان فردوس در افق 1414، ایجاد امنیت اجتماعی در مقصد و جاذبه‌های گردشگری (15 +)، ترویج و حفظ صنایع دستی بومی- محلی (11+)، توسعه زیرساخت‌های گردشگری محلی (7+)، برندسازی و بازاریابی محصولات گردشگری محلی (7 +)، حفظ پتانسیل‌های تاریخی و میراث فرهنگی محلی (5+)، سرمایه‌گذاری و تأمین منابع مالی گردشگری (1 +)، است.
نتیجه‌گیری: این پژوهش نسبت به مطالعات قبلی، ضمن به‌کارگیری رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی، پیشران‌های موثر بر توسعه گردشگری را در ابعاد محلی (داخلی) و فرامحلی مورد ارزیابی قرار داده است.
کلیدواژه‌ها
آینده پژوهی
پیشران‌های محلی
توسعه گردشگری
شهرستان فردوس
مدل ساختاری (MICMAC)

عنوان مقاله English

Identifying Key Local Drivers Influencing Tourism Development Using a Futures Studies Approach: A Case Study of Ferdows County (Iran)

نویسندگان English

Moslem Ghasemi
Saeedeh Fakhari
Ehsan Jafari
Department of Geography and Tourism, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده English

Objective: This study aims to identify the key local drivers influencing tourism development in Ferdows County, Iran, with a future-oriented perspective toward the 1414 Horizon (2035).
Methods: The research is applied in purpose and employs a mixed-methods design. The study population consisted of tourism experts, managers, and stakeholders in Ferdows County. Using snowball sampling and the principle of theoretical saturation, 30 experts were selected for the qualitative phase. Data were collected through structured interviews and a futures studies cross-impact questionnaire. The identified drivers were analyzed using the MICMAC structural analysis model.
Results: The results revealed fifteen local drivers affecting tourism development. Among these, the most influential drivers were social security and safety in tourism destinations and attractions (+15), promotion and preservation of indigenous handicrafts (+11), development of local tourism infrastructure (+7), branding and marketing of local tourism products (+7), preservation of historical assets and cultural heritage (+5), and tourism investment and financial support (+1).
Conclusions: By adopting a futures studies approach, this research provides a comprehensive assessment of both local and extra-local factors affecting tourism development. The findings offer strategic insights for policymakers and tourism planners seeking to enhance the long-term competitiveness and sustainability of tourism in Ferdows County.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Futures Studies
Local Drivers
Tourism Development
Ferdows County
Structural Model (MICMAC)
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  • تاریخ دریافت 20 خرداد 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 26 آبان 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 16 دی 1404
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار 01 خرداد 1405